Lies, damned lies, Statistics and Climate Forecasting. A song.

It is hard to make predictions – especially about the future (Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, et al.)

The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain’s worst polluters.
The massive machine – the UK’s most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory – was installed in the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter, Devon.
With a total peak performance approaching 1 PetaFlop — equivalent to over 100,000 PCs and over 30 times more powerful than what was in place before. It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.

So what glorious new and accurate information are they producing now?

Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11
This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change.
Temperature
3 in 10 chance of a mild start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a cold start
Precipitation
3 in 10 chance of a wet start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a dry start
Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season.
Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.

I am really impressed by their newfound forecasting ability.
So impressed I have written a new lyrics to Merle Travis song: Sixteen tons (Popularized by Tennessee Ernie Ford)

Some people say people are made outta mud
Global warmists they are, they are chewing their cud,
Chewing their cud and follow Al Gore
A mind that’s a-weak can you ask for much more?

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ’em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

They came in one mornin’ when the sun didn’t shine
They picked up their papers and continued the grind
They had sixteen conditions, mostly falsified bull
And the straw boss said “Well, a-bless my soul”.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ’em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

They came in one mornin’, it was drizzlin’ rain
the prognosis had failed them again and again
The boss harshly told them, You will do many more
Do as I tell you, and agree with Al Gore.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ’em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

The cold snap we’re having now, it just cannot last
and hidin’ the warming that occurred in the past
Their ol’ man Mann and his hockey stick.
With conditions like this nothing ever will click.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ’em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.