The deadly tornadoes in the South, an early sign of global cooling.


The deadly tornadoes in the South, an early sign of global cooling.
The first reaction to the headline might be: You got that wrong, every weather related calamity is the result of global warming caused by manmade actions. To get an answer let us look at an 1100 year history of the North Atlantic.
During the Medieval Warming Period the Vikings crossed the Atlantic in their open Viking Ships with ease. They colonized Greenland and went as far north as Ruin Island, near the Thule region of today. There were storms, but not so severe the open ships could not handle it. During the thirteenth century the climate became much colder, the Greenland settlements were abandoned and the storms became more severe. Then came the little Ice Age and the storms grew to become the strongest recorded.
What is it that causes storms and their associated tornadoes? The last time tornadoes of this magnitude appeared were in 1974, a time when the mantra was: We are entering a new ice age, the average temperature in 2000 will be a full 10 degrees colder than 1974. Repent of your pollution and acid rain! Thanks to SOx scrubbers and better awareness of pollution the air is now much cleaner in the Northern Hemisphere. China on the other hand has now passed us and is now the largest polluter on earth.
Back to the cause of tornadoes. They occur along fronts where warm, humid air collides with cold air.
This year the Mexican Gulf is unusually warm since they did not have many hurricanes sapping its energy last year. The Pacific on the other hand has gone from an El Nino (warm ocean) to a La Nina (cold ocean). In addition the arctic air has had a significant cool-down. The combination of all three components has led to a streaming of warm humid air up the East Coast, clashing with unusually cold air coming in from the Pacific and Arctic.
Does increasing CO2 level in the air have anything to do with it? No, increasing CO2 level would; if anything; tend to decrease volatility in the air in the temperate region and have virtually no impact in the tropics. The IPCC (UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has got it all wrong. They correctly state there is a logarithmic relationship in regard to CO2’s contribution to global warming. This is true, but not at the concentrations we are having today. Since the absorption bands for CO2 are narrow, few, specific and strong, half of all global warming due to CO2 occurs when the concentration goes from 0 to 20 ppm. This fundamental spectroscopic fact is ignored by IPCC. Instead they are talking about “gain” in the system leading to a possible thermal runaway, when in fact the opposite is true. With rising temperatures, the water vapor in the air increases drastically. Water vapor is lighter than air so the humid air rises and will cool down adiabatically and form clouds, sometimes leading to thunderstorms. Where there are clouds the sunlight is reflected back into space leading to a cooling of the air. If the air is really warm, the clouds occur earlier in the day and lasting longer. The point is: Rather than a gain in the system there is attenuation, causing the tropics to have the same temperature, be it Ice Age or Warm Period in the polar region. However, during the Ice Age cycle the temperature difference is much bigger leading to more violent storms, tornadoes and hurricanes.
We are seeing the beginning of a cool-down cycle that will last for another 20 years. Is it the onset of a new Ice Age? Probably not, the Sun and Cosmic Radiation will determine that. It is hard to predict future behavior of the Sun and Super Novas.
My prediction for the Hurricane season? There will be fewer hurricanes in the North Atlantic than normal, but they will find the Mexican Gulf and the Eastern Seaboard this year, causing substantial damage.

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2 Comments

  1. Posted November 17, 2012 at 12:49 am | Permalink

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