2010 Atlantic Hurricane season, nowhere nearly as bad as they say.


2010 Atlantic Hurricane season, nowhere nearly as bad as they say.

The predictions are in. There seems to be a rare agreement the hurricane season will be one of the most active on record, rivaling or even surpassing the year of Katrina. Well, they are hopefully all wrong, and here are the reasons why.
Let us first take the case for the active hurricane season.
It is true that the Atlantic Ocean east of Africa is warmer than normal, and so is the Norway Current all the way up to Svalbard, as well as the water off western Greenland. El Niño has suddenly been replaced by la Niña, so the upper level winds will be less shearing than last year, allowing the storms to grow into sustained hurricanes.
Last winter El Niño was still very active, and the East Coast experienced an unusual wet season, with record rain and snowfall in places. There was also record snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere. Why was that?
Again conventional wisdom pointed to el Niño, but that doesn’t explain the extreme heat transfer in the form of condensation from South to North, and yet lower than normal temperatures for the whole Northern Arctic with the exception of Svalbard.
Now take a look at was is really happening:
1. Sun spot cycle 24 is still refusing to get organized, leaving us with very low solar activity.
2. The magnetic field is abnormally low, we could even get a magnetic field reversal in the years 2012 – 2013 or so.
3. Interstellar cosmic radiation is at an all time high since we started taking measurements.
4. Cosmic radiation causes an increase in the lower cloud cover of the earth.
5. While there is zero correlation between the amount of CO2 in the air and average air temperature there is a near 100 % correlation between the amount of cloud cover and average air temperature. (More cloud cover means lower temperature). (The zero correlation holds true for CO2 concentrations above 150 ppm, below 50 ppm the logarithmic relationship holds true).
6. More cloud cover this summer and winter means more rain and snow this winter, much like last year. This will continue for at least two more years.
7. When there is more cloud cover the tropical storms have a hard time getting organized, and staying organized.

So, here are the predictions:

Source…………… Date …… Named storms..Hurricanes..Major hurricanes

Colorado State…….April 7…………15…………..8……………4
N Carolina State…..April 26………15-18………..8-11……….
NOAA ……………May 27………14-23………..8-14……….3-7
Accu0Weather……..May 27………16-18………..5…………..
My prediction………May 31………….9…………..2………….1

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One Comment

  1. lenbilen
    Posted December 15, 2010 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    From a post on December 15, 2010 by Ryan Maue.
    Global tropical cyclone activity still in the tank.
    Even with the expected active 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season, which accounts on average for about 1/5 of global annual hurricane output, the rest of the global tropics has been historically quiet. The Western North Pacific this year has seen 8-Typhoons, the fewest in at least 65-years of records. Closer to the US mainland, the Eastern North Pacific off the coast of Mexico has uncorked a grand total of 7 tropical storms of which 3 became hurricanes, the fewest since at least 1970. Global, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Energy (ACE) remain at decades-low levels. With the fantastic dearth of November and December global hurricane activity, it is also observed that the frequency of global hurricanes has continued an inexorable plunge into into a double-dip recession status. With 2010 [possibly but not probably] being the hottest year ever, we will likely see the fewest number of global tropical cyclones observed in at least three-decades…

    Soo, I was wrong on the Atlantic hurricane season but right globally.


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