2009, the year of few hurricanes.


2009, the year of few hurricanes.
I was just looking at the National Hurricane center and as so many times during this hurricane season it reads:
“There are no tropical cyclones at this time”. This Is true for
Atlantic – Caribbean Sea – Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific (out to 140°W)
The average June-August 2009 summer temperature for the contiguous United States was below average – the 34th coolest on record, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. August was also below the long-term average. The analysis is based on records dating back to 1895.
The Arctic polar ice cap as of Sep 15 is 5 million square kilometers, up 23% from 2007.
The Antarctic ice cap as of Sep 16 is 18.5 million square kilometars, up 5% from 2008, and up 3% from 1979 – 2000 average.
“In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth – quite the contrary. And this means that the projections of future climate are unreliable,” writes Henrik Svensmark, Professor, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen.
The Earth’s cooling trend is probably due to the solar cycle. The sun has entered a less active phase, and the sunspot cycle is delayed, or is absent altogether.
The electromagnetic activity from the solar wind is not necessarily tied to sunspots, but the sun has both low sunspots and low solar wind out of the normal 11-year cycle.
It looks more and more that we are entering another “little ice age”
Countering this is the increased CO2 in the atmosphere, but its influence is less than the climate models have suggested, notice that the ice caps have started growing again.
So, we should welcome increased CO2 production, but not pollution, since pollution has a chilling effect, much like volcanic eruptions.
Increased levels of CO2 leads to higher crop yields, the forests grow better, and the weeds are having a field day, in short; a more lush environment that will sustain all kinds of life better.
I started this blog entry by noticing the absence of hurricanes in this Hemisphere.
The spring and early summer was unusually cool, and the skies were on average less cloud covered than normal. We had one big hurricane come up the Atlantic, but otherwise it was quiet on the hurricane front. Then in July and August the air temperature rose much more than normal. My hunch is that this is due to the absence of clouds so the atmosphere warmed up much more than normal. And without clouds no hurricanes form. This year was different in another aspect. The tropical storms that did form didn’t stay organized, but dissipated again.
So my proposal to the makers of climate models is to assign a much lower factor for the CO2, and start looking at the clouds and observe the sun. Tweak the models until they agree with past data, and accept the fact that CO2 isn’t the main culprit, only a minor contributor once the effect of clouds are factored in properly.

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One Comment

  1. lenbilen
    Posted October 7, 2009 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    The Pacific Typhoons (another name for hurricanes) are governed by a different Geography. In the EurAsian landmass the mountains go east-west and the polar influence is thereby shielded. They are having a normal to above normal typhoon season. The el nino that just started is relatively mild, so we could expect next typhoon season to be normal

    In America the weather is to a much larger degree dependent on what goes on in the Arctic and the Antarctic. The Rocky Mountains – Andes mountain chain goes north south, and that is what makes it so interesting to observe the recent cooling trend and how that made the hurricanes unable to get their act together.


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